ISFA

The Institute for Strategic Future Analyses (ISFA) is based in Hamburg. It is an independent research, analysis and advocacy institute in the legal form of a Limited (Ltd.). ISFA provides its customers from public and private clients  with interdisciplinary and comprehensive long term analyses with a focus on security policy. The knowledge and advocacy provided by ISFA supports the establishment of early warning systems, strategic planning and long-term planning as to minimize the risks for decision-makers.

Staff

Within the overall PiraT project, ISFA is responsible for several areas as outlined below. The academic director, Prof. Dr. Peter Schmidt, the technical director Heinz Dieter Jopp as well as the CEO, Roland Kaestner contribute to the project. Roland Kaestner is responsible for the coordination with the ISFH.

Aims and Objectives

In order to open the time-horizon of the research project PiraT and thus enable the integration of mid- and longterm-perspective, ISFA will provide a modelled analysis for the next 15 to 20 years based on the scenario-method under the framework of Working Package 2. ISFA bases this analysis on several findings of the report „Security, Peace and Technology in the 21st century”. Specifically, this means that piracy, transnational and maritime terrorism are looked at in isolation first, and in a second step, which takes into account global factors influencing the research question, are discussed in their complexity. The research will develop indicators and data that serve to indentify risks in the mid- and long- term perspective.

The research will follow seven trend-fields:

  • Demographic change
  • Ressources and the Environment
  • Developments in Science and Technology
  • Cultural Development
  • Societal Development
  • Economic Development
  • Political Development

An analysis of the world regions where contemporary piracy and maritime terrorism occur helps to identify the factors, which are the precondition for piracy and maritime terrorism in the seven trend fields. This then enables the identification of areas, where piracy and maritime terrorism are likely to occur in the mid- and long-term. Furthermore actors and countries which have an interest in the proliferation of piracy and maritime terrorism will be identified according to the method outlined above.

The trends and counter-trends established with this approach found the basis for the development of scenarios. These scenarios serve to identify the trends, whose change has led to new scenarios in relation to piracy and maritime terrorism and are likely to do so in the future.